The player identifies six options for action, one can be do nothing, rolls the dice and acts on the out come. The complete opposite of scientific fact based decision making that managers claim to use. Or is it? The dice man has only six options including do nothing. But how many options do managers typically identify? Two ,three, four? In my experience the options get very quickly down two or three and one of those may be do nothing. As in wait and see, the timing is not right, we need more information. Do nothing can be a positive decision as in,”don’t panic”, “ just carry on as before “. “we don’t need to act just to be seen to do something.” Waiting for more information is often a delaying tactic as there is never enough information. In both the dice man and scientific decision making much depends on which options are identified to be considered. How the option is selected could be on the role of the dice or a debate in the senior management team. If the dice method is used all options have an equal chance of being selected. In the scientific method the preference of the Chief Executive may have a greater chance of being adopted. In the dice man some options are risky, dangerous even illegal. In the scientific method options can be risky, dangerous and unethical. We know organisations consider these options because when things go wrong we learn about the high risks they took with their funds, the questionable morality of decisions which had a devastating impact on service users or local communities and we know they broke the law because they were subsequently found out.
And of course we are assuming when a decision is arrived at it is followed through. Former PM Tony Blair complained about the frustration of pulling the levers of Government and then nothing happening. Senior management teams in organisations are often reported to be surprised when they are informed at a later date that the decision (s) they made never actually translated into the actions they intended. It would appear that the SMT in many organisations are preoccupied with making decisions, leaving the implementation to others and assuming that once decided it will be done!
I am not seriously suggesting organisations make key decisions by rolling the dice just pointing out that decision making isn’t as scientific as the lengthy and some times heated debates in management team would have us believe.
Blair Mcpherson former director author and blogger www.blairmcpherson.co.uk
